Use "One Country, Two Areas" to Relieve Miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait
By Kao Koong-lian
United Daily News, August 7, 2021
A newspaper reported that Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong of Singapore talked about the situation in the Taiwan Strait. He did not think mainland China would make a unilateral move against Taiwan, but warned about a danger of mass miscalculation and mishap. The major risks to Taiwan are the deterioration of cross-strait relations and the tilt of Taiwan independence. Mainland China has always regarded Taiwan as its "core interest" and will never waver, and Lee Hsien Loong pointed out that even the mainland population has held this view. Recently, Taiwanese popular entertainer Dee Hsu, better known as "Little S," posted her support for Taiwan's Olympic athletes, referring them as "national team members" which set off boycott by mainland netizens, costed her endorsement deals with mainland Chinese companies.
Lee Hsien Loong pointed out that the "1992 Consensus" is a viable way to maintain relations and develop cooperation between the two sides of the strait. However, the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) has stigmatized the 1992 Consensus, and distorted it to equate with "One Country, Two Systems." The original 1992 Consensus was to create an ambiguous space for each to have its own interpretation of "one China". allowing each side to back down; but the administration of President Tsai Ing-wen has refused to accept it, resulting in a stalemate.
Now it is time to come up with a solution. The author believes that based on the amendments to the Constitution and the Act Governing Relations between the people of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area, the two sides of the strait are defined as "one nation, two areas", that is, the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area. Many in Taiwan refuse to call themselves the "Taiwan area," but when dealing with the "non-state-to-state" relationship between the two sides of the strait, only by the partition of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area can show the reciprocal status of the two sides of the strait. A few days ago,the private sectors made donation of coronavirus (COVID-19) vaccines through the general agent Shanghai Fosun, and the word "Taiwan area" appeared in the contract. The DPP official did not agree with it at first. But after the donors reminded that this was actually our legal term, they finally approved. Since the vaccines that are critical to people's lives can be released in this way, this model should be feasible for cross-strait affairs.
Therefore, if government leaders can solemnly declare on important occasions, such as the National Day Rally, that we would define cross-strait relations in accordance with the " Act Governing Relations between the People of the Taiwan Area and the Mainland Area,”(Note:Use the full name of the law rather than the abbreviate version of the "Act Governing People’s Relations Across the Taiwan strait. Since the full name implies one nation, two areas.) to promote dignified, reciprocal, and mutually beneficial cross-strait exchanges, it can evade the sensitive issue of 1992 Consensus and develop cross-strait interactions.
The Chinese Association of Public Opinion Research recently commissioned the TVBS polling center to conduct a poll asking about the cross-strait relations of the Tsai administration in the past five years: 51.2 percent surveyed think that it has become worse, and only 8.5 percent feel it has become better. The survey also asked about the future prospect under the Tsai administration. The result: cross-strait relations will become better at 3.7 percent and worse at 50.8 percent. In other words, the people one-sided do not have many expectations for future cross-strait relations.
In the same survey, 74 percent of the people interviewed believe that mainland China market is helpful to Taiwan’s economic development. This shows that there are indeed "economic and trade dividends" between the two sides of the strait. If cross-strait relations improve, there should be more space for growth.
The following indicators can measure the cross-strait relations: (1) cross-strait exchanges: including cultural, economic, trade, social, and personnel exchanges, (2). cross-strait communication channels, (3) cross-strait consultations and negotiations, (4) cross-strait agreements, and (5) cross-strait affairs hotlines at all levels.
The cross-strait relations have deteriorated in the past five years. They have completely interrupted the second to fifth indicators and become irresponsive. Even in disasters such as the derailment of the Taroko train in April and the floods in Zhengzhou, Henan Province in July, the expression of care and condolences were only uttered coldly by low-level officials. There was no direct communication channel at all. It is no wonder that PM Lee Hsien Loong warned that there is a risk of miscalculation in the Taiwan Strait.
We believe that it is very important to restore cross-strait communication channels through concessions by both sides. And the "peace dividend" for both sides can be restored from this. As the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) plus five is about to take effect, in order to avoid the effects of investment transfers and industrial relocation, both parties should show goodwill, negotiate a feasible solution, and establish cross-strait communication channels using economic and trade dividends as a lubricant for cross-strait relations. to avoid the risk of miscalculation.
The author formerly served as vice chairman and secretary-general of the Straits Exchange Foundation from 2008 to 2014.